TriumphAnt

So… pending the outcome of a couple of judicial recounts because the results separated winner from second place by less than a hundred votes, here’s what has Canadians wondering any of a dozen interpretations of “What did we just do?” (punctuated in the West with strategically inserted obscenities and substituting “Ontario” for “we” because Ontario re-elected way more Liberals than any of the pre-election pollsters were predicting would be the case. They were hammered in the West and, of course, in Quebec. The East gave them a few gains but the East really has too few seats -- about 34 across four provinces -- to make anything but ripples on the Canadian electoral pond):

Liberals: 135;
Conservatives: 99;
Bloc Quebecois: 54;
NDP: 19
and one lonely Independent in BC.

Consider that in Canada there are 308 seats in the House of Commons, half of which is 154 (in this blog, we aim to spare you unnecessary complications like math). Now, just for fun, imagine an issue requiring a vote and play with some possibilities:

Liberals plus NDP: 154
Bloc plus Conservatives plus that one independent: 154

Now consider that someone among those 308 has to be lifted from his or her seat by the Party asked to lead a government and be designated as Speaker of the House, thus to be dropped from being eligible to vote, except in the event of a tie.

Customarily the governing party (in this case the Liberals) draws the speaker from their own ranks. So change that 135 to 134.

I repeat: What did we just do?

In these days immediately following the election, cooler heads seem to be saying, “We can make this work.” They are also saying, “We will not form an official coalition” which pretty well binds you together through thick and thin, but rather “We will work together on an issue by issue basis.”

I think that someone should design a “media bingo” game and publish game boards that offer a grid of hackneyed phrases one can expect to see or hear in the media in the weeks and months ahead. (I frankly doubt that “years” will pass before we’re all dutifully marching off to the polls again.) And put “strange bedfellows” right smack in the middle -- the one usually labelled "Free Square" on a Bingo card. Because it's going to be everywhere!

Case in point: Employment Insurance benefits for seasonal workers. Huge issue in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, which both are home to a great many fisher… people thingies. Just before the election, the Liberals promised to spend more money on the program so workers could qualify for EI cheques sooner, based on fewer hours worked. The Conservatives, however, campaigned on reducing EI seasonal benefits and putting the money into creating more full-time jobs in the affected regions. But the Bloc will support the Liberals on anything that adds money to seasonal workers’ pockets.

Another case in point: Increased Employment Insurance benefits for new moms and dads on parental leave. Small business hates this because small business can’t afford to keep lengthening the time its working parents are off work. Quebec hates the feds having anything to do with it because they see it as a federal intrusion into provincial turf. Quebec’s position has been: just give us the money and let us manage our own parental leave program. The Bloc, therefore, won’t support anything that keeps control of this program in federal hands. But almost every other province in Canada opposes downloading it on the provinces because Quebec is about the only province in the country wealthy enough to manage its own parental leave program. Who’ll support whom on this one? Heads or tails.

Tax cuts (Conservatives) vs ramping up government spending on social programs, even going into deficit if necessary (NDP).

Huge increases in military spending (Conservatives) vs no way José (everyone else).

It’s not just where the vote splits will occur given present Party positions, it’s where a Party will prove to be willing to prostitute itself and sell out one of its campaign positions in favour of winning major concessions on another.

Minority governments have a short shelf life in Canadian politics. But no one among the present assembly wants to trigger a rush back to the polls anytime soon because the general view is that a couple of them (the Bloc especially) are sitting on the platform labelled “As good as it gets”. Another election isn’t going to improve their fortunes unless (a) they make a major positive impression by a series of successful strategic alliances, or (b) someone uncovers a cesspool of past Liberal slime and corruption – preferably with the soiled diapers being found outside the Prime Minister’s home – so pungent that not even the Liberals will escape total voter wrath next time around.

What, indeed, did we do?

SPECIAL THIS WEEK: Just take this opinion to any of the National Capital Region Starbuck’s, along with $5.00, and receive one Vente-sized cup of your choice of their featured brewed coffees of the day – regular or de-caff. And they’ll even throw in some change.

About two cents worth.